Marty’s Better

The President’s Trophy winners face off against the Nashville Predators in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  After the jump a preview that comes a little late, but before the start of the series…

Before I get into this, a quick shout out to Hale: How bout them Gunners baby!!!  I knew there was no way Arsenal was winning at Anfield.  As a result, the Gunners can start booking tee times, or whatever European athletes do when they lose in a tournament.  Also, I have the flu.  That’s why this preview is late.  A few notes from today.  First, I just saw a story where they mentioned Candace Parker was selected first overall in the WNBA draft.  Then they went on to say that she’ll make up one of the best tandems in WNBA history with Lisa Leslie.   Also, apparently she had another year of eligibility at Tennessee.  Ok, so let me get this straight, because I’m sick, and I may be hallucinating.  First, the WNBA holds their draft the day after the national title game.  So Parker had all of about 3 hours after she got done boozing the night away to declare for said draft.  Also, when talking about the greatest tandems in WNBA history, aren’t we reaching a little.  How many great tandems have actually existed in the WNBA?  How old is the league?  Ten?  Fifteen?  Finally, she had an extra year of eligibility at Tennessee.  But she chose to forego that final season for a rookie contract in the WNBA that will pay her $44,000 a year for year one all the way to $47,000 a year in year four.  In case you were wondering, I now make more money yearly than Candace Parker.  So does a lot of this country.  And no one pays to watch me work.  Anyway, the WNBA’s CBA states that only veterans of five years or longer are entitled to their own hotel room on the road.  So Candace Parker took a pay cut to live the same life she’s been living at Tennessee?  Come on, we all know how the SEC and Tennessee work.  She had to be pulling down a boatload as Tennessee best player.  Plus, cost of living in Tennessee is much cheaper than LA.  You know what $44,000 a year gets you in LA?  Can you way Compton?  Watts?  Good luck with that, Candace.  Oh yeah, and if the WNBA wants to improve their image, banning pants suits at the draft would help.  Ok, onto my breakdown of the series.

Five on Five: I’d like to think there’s a decent matchup here, but there isn’t.  The Red Wings have some question marks but five on five hockey isn’t one of them.  They scored a ton of goals this year and Nashville allowed a lot.  The Red Wings had a +73 goal differential to Nashville’s +1.  They’ll roll three very good lines and have great dynamic talent up front in Zetterberg and Datsyuk.  Advantage: Red Wings

Special Teams: Detroit was the best in the West on the power play this year.  Only Montreal and Philly were better.  The Wings score at a one out of five clip on the power play.  However, the Predators were third best in the league on the PK, killing at an 85%  clip.  This could cause problems for the Wings.  In my experience as a fan, great penalty killing always trumps great power plays.  That being said, the Predators had one of the worst power plays in the league this year, while Detroit kills at around 84%.  Nashville’s penalty killing could really help them out a lot, but so could Detroit’s, and you have to think the Red Wings will score at least a few on the PP in the series.  Advantage: Red Wings

Goaltending: Goaltending is a big issue in this series.  Sure, the Wings should have a huge advantage, but they don’t.  Chris Osgood and Dominik Hasek both started over 40 games.  Hasek started more down the stretch.  In Nashville, Dan Ellis started more down the stretch, but Chris Mason started two of the last three games, one of which came when the eighth seed wasn’t wrapped up yet.  Goaltending in this series is going to come down to game one.  The thing about hockey is that game one matters very little.   You want to get a good start, but they play four out of seven for a reason.   As a fan of a team that hasn’t had a goaltending issue for fifteen years, even when losing game one, I have no worries about who will be in between the pipes in games two through seven.  What happens if Nashville comes out and blows by the Wings in game one 4-1 with Hasek in goal?  Does Hasek sit game two?  The same goes for the Preds.  If they lose game one with a soft goal or two, do they make a switch.  Honestly, when you have two number one goaltenders, you don’t have any.  So for me, it’s Advantage: Push

Coaching: Quick, who is the longest tenured head coach in the playoffs?  Yep, it’s Barry Trotz.  After missing the playoffs in his first five years as Preds coach, Trotz had guided the Predators to a first round loss in each of the last three seasons.  After two 100+ point seasons, the Predators finished with 91 this year.  In Mike Babcock’s first five years as an NHL head coach, he’s been quite successful.   His Ducks lost in the Cup Final in his rookie year.  After missing the playoffs and a lockout paired with an insulting one year extension offer, Babcock packed his things and headed for Detroit, where his teams have finished with 124, 113, and 115 points.  That’s good for two President’s Trophies.  They tied for the lead in points last year, but Buffalo had more wins.  Trotz knows his team, he knows his organization, and he knows how to get the most out of his players.  Babcock strikes me as a guy whose struck gold.  He rode a hot goalie to the Final in 2003.  Then, after the lockout he inherited a team whose management will do anything to put the best players on the ice in Detroit.  It’s like managing the Yankees.  You know you’re going to have your pick of the litter come free agency, and you know you have a great GM who drafts incredibly well.  Plus, when the pressure’s been on, he’s been outcoached, both in 2003 and last year in the West Final.  Trotz gets more out of less.  Advantage: Predators

Intangibles: The Red Wings are in a no win situation, much like the Sharks.  The Sharks are the sexy pick to win every year because of what they have on paper.  And until they win, “experts” will continue to pick them.  Detroit is the favorite every year because of what they do on the ice during the regular season.  But for as much as they’ve done the last fifteen years, they’ve also had some epic failures.  Nashville has nothing to lose.  If the Wings lose one of the first two, you may hear some grumbles for a goaltending changes.  The Predators also have size down the middle which could cancel out some of Detroit’s skilled players.  This is the second post-Yzerman edition of the Red Wings, and I’ve yet to see someone step up and be as clutch as #19.  The pressure in Detroit coupled with their record will be a crutch for the Wings.  Also, the Predators have one player, Jason Arnott, who knows what it’s like to score a Cup winning goal in OT.  That rubs off on other players.   Advantage: Predators

Prediction: The Red Wings really have no business losing this series.  But coming into this series they have a lot of question marks, namely in goal and in terms of the toughness of their big scorers.  Also, Nick Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski have battled injuries this season.  Chris Chelios also sat 13 games this season.  The bottom line is the Red Wings back line is somewhat old and unhealthy.  I’d be interested to see how much Nashville’s big forwards beat them up.   Since the Red Wings started their run of dominance, they’ve been ousted by an eighth seed twice.  Also, they’ve lost in the first round as a division winner, twice as the first seed, four times.  I’m predicting it happens again.  Predators in Seven

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